Sunday, April 13, 2014

Permutations & Combinations (aka the NHL's Draft Lottery)

(Unfortunately this is one that I had multiple copies of in my files)

Quick: what's 14 x 13 x 12 x 11? It's 24,024.

What's that have to do with the Draft Lottery? Well, everything.

The lottery is conducted with the selection of four balls from a pool of 14. Once a ball is chosen, it is not replaced (so each ball can be selected only once). As if turns out, there are 24,024 possible "permutations" that can be chosen. However, when you change it to combinations (ie 1-2-3-4 is the same result as 4-3-2-1 or 2-3-4-1.... or 21 other permutations), there are only (24,024 divided by 24 = ) 1,001 possible results.

One of those 1,001 is thrown out (I don't believe that the NHL has ever identified which one it is) and the others are assigned to each of the teams.

Here are the odds of winning the lottery:

30th place team – Buffalo-- 25.0% 
29th place team – Florida -- 18.8%
28th place team -- Edmonton-- 14.2%
27th place team – Calgary -- 10.7%
26th place team –Islanders-- 8.1%
25th place team –Vancouver-- 6.2%
24th place team –Carolina-- 4.7%
23rd place team –Toronto-- 3.6%
22nd place team – Winnipeg-- 2.7%
21st place team – Ottawa-- 2.1%
20th place team – New Jersey--1.5%
19th place team – Nashville--1.1%
18th place team – Phoenix--0.8%
17th place team – Washington -- 0.5%

So, the Isles have a 8.1% chance of winning the lottery and picking 1st.
If Buffalo, Florida, Edmonton or Calgary win the lottery, the Isles will retain the 5th pick (68.7%)
Otherwise the Isles will have the 6th pick (23.2%)

As part of the Thomas Vanek deal, the Isles need to send their first round pick to Buffalo either this year or next.  The Isles have until June 1st to notify the Sabres which pick they will send to Buffalo.

Islander 1st overall picks:  Harris (1972), Potvin (1973), DiPietro (2000),Tavares (2009)
Islander 5th overall picks:  Kasparaitis (1992), Brewer (1997), Connolly (1999), Torres (2000), Niederreiter (2010), Strome (2011)
Islander 6th overall picks:  Dalgarno (1985), Scissons (1990)

The lottery will be held on Tuesday and televised beginning at 8:00 on NBC Sports Network and TSN.
 
Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since January 21, 1982. Visit my blog: NYISkinny.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick

The Skinny: Isles 4, Buffalo 3 (SO)


"The Skinny"  

By Eric Hornick
Game 82
Isles 4, Buffalo 3 (shootout)
Anders Lee scored two goals and Brock Nelson scored the tying goal with 3:44 to play before scoring the only goal in the shootout as the Islanders rallied to defeat Buffalo 4-3 before a crowd of 18,804 at the First Niagara Center.  The Isles have earned 36 points (17-5-2) in their last 22 road games; it's the first time in franchise history that the Isles have earned 36 points over a stretch of 24 road games (single season) in their history.
The Scoring:

1st Period
10:27    BUF      Jamie McBain (6) Snap shot - ASST: Connor Knapp (1)   1 - 0 BUF         
2nd Period
07:23    BUF      Matt Ellis (4) Tip-in - ASST: Marcus Foligno (12), Jake McCabe (1)           2 - 0 BUF         
16:37    NYI       PPG - Anders Lee (8) Wrist shot - ASST: Frans Nielsen (32), Josh Bailey (29) 2 - 1 BUF

3rd Period
00:17    NYI       Anders Lee (9) Backhand shot - ASST: Josh Bailey (30), Frans Nielsen (33) 2 - 2 Tie        
09:51    BUF      Torrey Mitchell (2) Tip-in - ASST: Rasmus Ristolainen (2), Henrik Tallinder (6) 3 - 2 BUF    
16:16    NYI       Brock Nelson (14) Wrist shot - ASST: Travis Hamonic (15)           3 - 3 Tie           
OT Period
NONE

The Shootout
Ennis (NG), Nielsen (NG), Hodgson (NG), Nelson (G), Leino (NG)
Frans Nielsen scored on 8 of 15 attempts this season…It was the 4th time in the eight seasons that the shootout existed that a shootout was needed to decide the season's final game.  The Isles improve to 57-41 all-time in shootouts.  Only Pittsburgh (61) and the Rangers (58) have more all-time shootout wins; only Pittsburgh (.656) has a better win percentage than the Isles (.582; tied with Dallas).
Team
GP
W
L
Win  Pct
PIT
93
61
32
   .656
NYR
101
58
43
   .574
NYI
98
57
41
   .582
DAL
98
57
41
   .582
BUF
103
57
46
   .553
The Skinny:  
The Isles finish the season with exactly 79 points for the fourth time in the last six full seasons…Playing without John Tavares, the Isles are 12-7-3 since the Olympic break… The Isles are 21-11-5 with Ryan Strome in the lineup… With the win, the Isles will finish over NHL-.500 on the road for the first time in a full season since 2006-07…Frans Nielsen had two assists to complete his career year; he matched Kyle Okposo's career point total of 254, which is 24th in Isles history …The Isles scored seven goals in their final three games and all seven were scored by rookies—2 by Ryan Strome, 2 by Brock Nelson and 3 by Anders Lee….It's the second time in his career that Anders Lee has scored twice in a game…  Josh Bailey had two more assists, continuing his career pattern of strong finishes. Bailey is 29-44-73 in 124 March/April games and 37-67-104 in 282 October thru February games. He was 2-7-9 in eight games this month… It's the 10th time this season that the Isles rallied to win after trailing after 40 minutes, which is the most by an NHL team since Vancouver won 11 times in 2009-10… The Sabres finished with only 150 goals scored, which is the fewest in the NHL since expansion…Isles are 12-1-3 in the last 16 games (dating back to last season) called by Jiggs McDonald. 

The Finale:
Isles improve to 22-13-6 in all-time regular season finales, stopping a five-game winless streak (0-3-2 since defeating the Rangers, 4-3 in a shootout, in 2008)
Isles are 20-16-5 in all-time road finales, stopping a five-game winless streak (0-4-1 since defeating the Rangers, 4-3 in a shootout, in 2008)

Chh..Chh…Changes
Only 10 of the Isles dressed tonight were dressed in the regular season opener in October in New Jersey; only 8 of the Isles dressed tonight played in game 6 vs. Pittsburgh last spring.

The Shots:
Isles       6-9-9-1=26
Buffalo  11-10-14-4=39
Career Years (excluding rookies, and others with limited prior NHL experience)
A number of Isles had career years in 2013-14:
·         Josh Bailey established new career highs in assists (30) and points (38)
·         Casey Cizikas established new career highs in assists (10) and points (16), while matching last year's goal total (6).
·         Matt Martin established a new career high in goals (8), while matching career high in points (14)
·         Colin McDonald established new career highs in goal (8) and points (18), while matching last year's assist total (10).
·         Frans Nielsen went 25-33-58, establishing new highs in all three categories.
·         Kyle Okposo went 27-42-69, also establishing new highs in all three categories.

Leaders:
·         Games: Thomas Hickey with 82
·         Goals: Kyle Okposo with 27
·         Assists: Kyle Okposo/John Tavares with 42
·         Points: John Tavares with 69
·         Plus/Minus: Thomas Hickey with +5
·         Pen Mins: Matt Carkner with 149
·         PP Goals: John Tavares with 8
·         SH Goals: Cal Clutterbuck and Michael Grabner each had 3
·         GW Goals: Kyle Okposo and John Tavares each had 4
·         OT Goals: Michael Grabner had 2
·         Shots: Kyle Okposo with 195
·         Shooting Percentage (current players): Frans Nielsen 15.0%
·         Average ice-time: Andrew MacDonald 25:25 (as Isle); Travis Hamonic 25:00
·         Face-off Percentages (minimum 300): Frans Nielsen 49.3%

Youth Movement
The Isles dressed 11 rookies for the third straight game: Kevin Czuczman, Matt Donovan, Brett Gallant, Mike Halmo, Anders Lee, Scott Mayfield, Brock Nelson, Anders Nilsson, Ryan Strome, John Persson and Justin Johnson. 

The Future
The Isles are the 5th seed heading in to Tuesday's draft lottery.  The Isles have a 8.1% chance to win the lottery and be awarded the first pick in the June Entry Draft.

Home and Road
The Islanders are 34-37-11 overall, 13-19-9 at home (including 0-1-0 at Yankee Stadium) and 21-18-2 on the road. The Isles are 10-4-2 in their last 16 games.  While their 13-19-9 home record is their worst on home-ice for a full season since 2000-01, the Isles have earned 44 points on the road for the first time since 2006-07.
Over the last two seasons, the Isles are 23-30-12 (58 points in 65 games) at home and 35-24-6 (76 points in 65 games) on the road.  The Isles have finished above NHL-.500 at home only once in the past seven seasons.
This was the first complete season that the Isles earned at least nine more points on the road than at home.  The Isles earned 32 points on the road and 23 points at home during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign.
Buffalo is 21-51-10 overall; they finish 13-21-7 at home and 8-30-3 on the road. The Sabres will be the top seed heading into Tuesday's draft lottery.

20 Win Club
This is the eighth time in club history that the Isles have won 20 road games in a season:
·         1976-77 23-10-7
·         1978-79 20-12-8
·         1980-81 25-12-3
·         1981-82 21-13-6
·         1983-84 22-15-3
·         1992-93 20-18-4
·         2001-02 21-15-3-2
·         2013-14 21-18-2

By Division
The Isles are 10-16-4 in Division games and are 24-21-7 in games against other divisions. They are 13-7-4 vs. the Atlantic Division, 7-6-1 vs. Central Division, and 4-8-2 vs. the Pacific Division.
The Isles won the season series from New Jersey 3-2-0 but did not have a winning record against any other division opponent. They are 1-3-0 against Carolina, 1-2-1 against Columbus, 2-3-0 against New York, 1-3-0 against Philadelphia, 1-2-1 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1-2 against Washington.
This was the last of 12 consecutive games against Eastern Conference opponents to end the regular season.  The Isles went 8-2-2 in this stretch.

In the Nets
Anders Nilsson made 36 saves as he improves to 8-7-2 on the season.  Nilsson is 4-0 in shootouts in his career.
Evgeni Nabokov finishes the season 15-14-8, with 4 shutouts. Nabby is 350-221-84 in his NHL career and is 57-43-18 over the last three seasons with the Isles. Among players who have appeared in at least 50 games for the Isles, only Chico Resch (2.56) has a lower GAA as an Isle than Nabokov (2.59).
It's the first time since 2001-02 (Chris Osgood and Garth Snow) that the Isles have two goaltenders with records above NHL-.500 (each with at least ten decisions). 
Connor Knapp made 22 saves for Buffalo in his first NHL start.  Knapp also recorded an assist for Buffalo.

Power Plays
The Islanders were 1-2 on the power play while Buffalo was 0-2. 
The Isles are 21-8-5 when they score at least one power play goal and 13-29-6 when they do not.  The Isles are 14-21-4 when they allow at least one power play goal and 20-16-7 when they do not. 
The Isles are 17-107 in the last 30 games on the power play and have allowed 18 power play goals in 82 times short over the last 21 games.   
The Isles went 49-276 on the power play this season and allowed 58 goals in 265 times short.

Feast or Famine
The Isles PP went 10-33 in the first 10 games, before going 7-79 in the next 24 games. They rebounded to go 11-32 in the following 11 games but are only 21-132 in their last 37 games.

Three is a Magic Number
The Isles are 27-10-4 when they score at least three goals (including shootout winners) and are 7-27-7 when they do not. 
Comeback Kids
The Isles are 17-9-8 when they score first and are 17-28-3 when they allow the opening goal.  The Isles allowed the first goal in 29 of their last 44 games.
This was the 8th time this season that the Isles won a game that they trailed by a 2-0 score.

Second to The One
Jack Capuano became the 2nd coach in Islander history to win 100 games in Toronto on January 7th and became the 2nd coach in Islander history to coach 250 games on January 27th against Boston. He is 2nd on the all-time Islander list in both games coached (277) and wins (118).

Most games coached (Islanders):
1.     Al Arbour 1,500
2.     Jack Capuano 277
3.     Mike Milbury 191
4.     Terry Simpson 187
5.     Scott Gordon 181
Most wins by Islander coaches:
1.     Al Arbour 740
2.     Jack Capuano 118
3.     Terry Simpson 81
4.     Peter Laviolette 77
5.     Ted Nolan 74

They Said It
Brock Nelson: "Last few games…everybody has been playing hard, and I think it showed."
Anders Lee: "I think the last 40 minutes...we were hard on the puck.  We battled back."

They Tweeted It
@JimGolembowski  I have been more inspired by watching Justin Johnson's 2 games than some others' 15 year careers.He's everyman #isles
@rphoey10  Many of the #Isles kids looked good this year. Lee, De Haan, and Nelson stood out to me. Hope they can build upon this years success.
@Jnardi One last run at the mad house on the meadowbrook. Fort neverlose. One more at the old barn. It's all I want #isles
@IslesFan83 Congrats to the #Isles rookies. You all have a lot to be proud of. This team is fantastic and I await great things next season. Happy Summer

The Coach
"I'm proud of the way they battled for each other…We'll be back next year…. We had that excitement last year and we will move forward to do what we need to do to make our team better and get back where we have to be."

Back-to-Backs
The Isles were 8-8-2 in the front-end and 8-8-2 on the back end of back-to-backs this season.  The Isles swept five back-to-backs:  November 1st/2nd vs. Ottawa and Boston, January 6th/7th vs. Dallas and Toronto, January 20th/21st vs. Philadelphia and the Rangers, April 1st/2nd vs. Florida and Ottawa and April 10th/11th vs. Montreal and New Jersey.
In the 18 sets of back-to-backs, the Isles earned 4 points five times, 3 points once, 2 points five times, 1 point three times and no points on four occasions. 

Leading Ice Men
Travis Hamonic led the Isles with 27:35 of ice-time while Jamie McBain led Buffalo with 25:41.
The Isles are 15-17-6 when MacDonald leads in ice-time, are 18-15-5 when Hamonic leads, are 1-0-0 when deHaan leads, are 0-1-0 when Okposo leads, are 0-1-0 when Strait leads, are 0-2-0 when Tavares leads and are 0-1-0 when Vanek leads.

In the Circle
The Islanders won 31 of 65 draws (48%). Brock Nelson won 7 of 9 for the Isles; Zenon Konpoka won 8 of 11 for Buffalo.

Heavy Hitters
The Isles out-hit Buffalo 23-17.  Matt Martin was one of three Isles with three hits. Martin is the NHL hit leader for the third straight season, finishing with 359 hits.  He now has the two highest hit totals in NHL history (since 2005).

Most hits, season:
1.     Matt Martin, NYI 374 in 2011-12
2.     Matt Martin, NYI 359 in 2013-14
3.     Cal Clutterbuck, Min 356 in 2009-10
Justin Johnson fought Adam Scott in the first period, Brett Gallant fought former Islander Zenon Kenopka in the second period and Scott Mayfield fought Nicolas Deslaurier in the third period. The Isles have received 39 fighting penalties this season: Martin (10), Carkner (9), Boulton (8), Gallant (3), McDonald (2), Halmo (2), Hamonic (2), Johnson (1), Mayfield (1) and Okposo (1).

Giving Up the Body
The Isles were credited with 10 blocked shots, including a team-high four blocks for Travis Hamonic.

All-time Winners
The Islanders improve to six games over all-time NHL .500 (1405-1399-450 in 3,254 games). The Isles have been 1-under all-time .500 after six games this season and have gone 4-0-2 in the following game. 
The Isles have not been more than 1 game under NHL-.500 since January 11, 1978 and have finished every season since 1977-78 over all-time NHL .500.

Ironman
Thomas Hickey is the Islanders' reigning ironman.  He has played 83 consecutive regular season games, and was the only Islander to have played in every game this season. 
Hickey is only the second Isles defenseman since Janne Niinimaa (2003-04) to appear in all 82 games.  Mark Streit did so twice, in 2009-10 and 2011-12.

Missing Men
John Tavares, Eric Boulton, Brian Strait, Lubomir Visnovsky, Kyle Okposo, Michael Grabner, Calvin deHaan, Cal Clutterbuck and Johan Sundstrom are all out injured. Radek Martinek was scratched.
The Isles have lost 251 games this season due to injury. 

Career Wins, Active Goalies
5. Henrik Lundqvist 309
Career Wins
17. Rogie Vachon 355
19. Gump Worsley 335
20. Nikolai Khabibulin 333
Career Shutouts, Active Goalies
4. Tomas Vokoun 51
5. Henrik Lundqvist 50
Career Shutouts
16 Turk Broda 62
17 Evgeni Nabokov 59
18 John Ross Roach 58

Career Goals as an Islander
15         Mariusz Czerkawski       145
16         John Tavares   136
17         Jason Blake      127
27         Trent Hunter      99
28         Kyle Okposo    99
29         Mikko Makela    95
29         David Volek      95
31         Randy Wood     94
32         Greg Gilbert      93
32         Garry Howatt     93
34         Travis Green      92
35         Butch Goring     87
36         Frans Nielsen   85
37         Tomas Jonsson            84
38         Michael Grabner 82
39         Wayne Merrick  81
39         Dave Scatchard            81
Career Assists as an Islander
16         Ed Westfall       181
17         John Tavares   179
18         Kenny Jonsson 175
19         Alexei Yashin    171
20         Duane Sutter     171
21         Frans Nielsen   169
22         Jean Potvin       167
23         Jeff Norton       166
24         Zigmund Palffy 163
25         Kyle Okposo    155      
26         David Volek      154
           
Career Games as an Islander (skaters)
24         Eddie Westfall  493
25         Radek Martinek 479
26         Gerry Hart         476
                       
29         Scott Lachance 450
30         Frans Nielsen   447
31         Jason Blake      426
34         Wayne Merrick  411
35         Josh Bailey      406
36         Jean Potvin       402
37         David Volek      396
38         Bert Marshall     392
39         Kyle Okposo    390
40         Travis Green      388
41         Anders Kallur    383
42         Randy Wood     381
43         John Tavares   350
44         Dave Scatchard   347

Career Points as an Islander
16         Ziggy Palffy      331
17         John Tavares   315
18         Mariusz Czerkawski       295
                       
22         Jason Blake      258
22         Steve Thomas   258
24         Kyle Okposo    254
24         Frans Nielsen   254
26         David Volek      249
Season Series Stats
The Isles win the season series 2 games to 1 (and 5 points to 3).
The Isles are 3-0-2 in their last five games against the Sabres, including 2-0-1 this season.

Happy Anniversary
32 years ago tonight (4-13-82):  John Tonelli scored 6:19 into overtime as the Islanders completed a remarkable rally to eliminate the Pittsburgh Penguins, winning the fifth and deciding game by a score of 4-3.  Mike McEwen and Tonelli had scored at 14:33 and 17:39 of the third period to force the game into the extra session.  The rally was precipitated in part by a move by legendary coach Al Arbour who pulled goaltender Billy Smith.  At the time, the rules allowed for a warm-up period for the replacement goalie, which Arbour used to rest his top lines.  The rule was changed a couple of years later and Howie Rose frequently notes the "Al Arbour rule" when a replacement goalie has to come in and play without a warm-up.
Also on this date:  (1994) The Isles clinch a playoff berth behind a 2-0 Ron Hextall shutout in Tampa Bay; (1984) Anders Kallur scored 7:35 into overtime as the Isles beat the Caps 5-4 to even their series at 1 game each.
All-time, the Isles are 1-1-6 in regular season play and 4-3 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs on this date

On The Farm
Springfield scored the winning goal with 5.4 seconds left as the Sound Tigers fell to 27-38-2-6 on the season.  Bridgeport hosts Adirondack in a make-up game on Monday to close out their home season.

Up Next
TUESDAY, APRIL 15th –NHL DRAFT LOTTERY 8:00pm
[NBCSN]
FRIDAY, JUNE 27th-SATURDAY, JUNE 28th   NHL ENTRY DRAFT (Philadelphia, PA)

And (Semi) Finally…
82 games… 82 Skinny's.  A perfect season…at least in attendance. Thanks so much to the Isles PR department and to all of my MSG colleagues. 
But most importantly, thanks to all of you who read (and comment on) The Skinny! 

And Finally…
4 words: UNION COLLEGE. National Champions.   Congratulations to my alma mater!

Eric Hornick has been the statistician on Islander home game telecasts since 1982. Information contained in "The Skinny" has been gathered from various sources.  Follow Eric @ehornick on Twitter.
Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since January 21, 1982. Visit my blog: NYISkinny.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick