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The Skinny: Rangers 5, Isles 2

"The Skinny" By Eric Hornick Game 68 Rangers 5, Isles 2 Johnny Brodzinski broke a 2-2 tie with 4:59 left in the middle period and ...

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Permutations & Combinations and Longshots of Longshots (aka the NHL's Draft Lottery)

(Unfortunately this is one that I had multiple copies of in my files)


Quick: what's 14 x 13 x 12 x 11? It's 24,024.
What's that have to do with the Draft Lottery? Well, everything.

The lottery is conducted with the selection of four balls from a pool of 14. Once a ball is chosen, it is not replaced (so each ball can be selected only once). As if turns out, there are 24,024 possible "permutations" that can be chosen. However, when you change it to combinations (ie 1-2-3-4 is the same result as 4-3-2-1 or 2-3-4-1.... or 21 other permutations), there are only (24,024 divided by 24 = ) 1,001 possible results.

One of those 1,001 is thrown out (I don't believe that the NHL has ever identified which one it is) and the others are assigned to each of the teams.

Here are the odds of winning the lottery:

30th place team – Colorado-- 18.0% 
29th place team – Vancouver-- 12.1%
Expansion team -- Las Vegas -- 10.3%
28th place team -- Arizona-- 10.3%
27th place team – New Jersey -- 8.5%
26th place team –Buffalo-- 7.6%
25th place team –Detroit-- 6.7%
24th place team –Dallas-- 5.8%
23rd place team –Florida-- 5.4%
22nd place team – Los Angeles-- 4.5%
21st place team – Carolina-- 3.2%
20th place team – Winnipeg--2.7%
19th place team – Philadelphia--2.2%
18th place team – Tampa Bay--1.8%
17th place team – ISLANDERS-- 0.9%

So obviously the Isles will need the equivalent of a 99:1 shot to come in to win the lottery.  Remember, this is the first year that they are determining the first three picks via lottery so the Isles' chances of moving up are (infinitesimally) larger.

No team seeded lower than 8th has ever won the draft lottery -- in 2011 New Jersey move from 8th to 4th, using their pick to select Adam Larsson.

The Isles have won the lottery twice, moving from 4th to 1st in 2000 (DiPietro) and retaining the first pick in 2009 (Tavares)

On the good side, the Isles can't move down -- barring a lottery miracle the Isles will pick 15th.

Islander 1st overall picks:  Harris (1972), Potvin (1973), DiPietro (2000), Tavares (2009)

Islander 15th overall picks:  Bossy (1977), Tambellini (1978), Nilsson (2003), O'Mara (2005), and Pulock (2013)

The lottery will be held tonight and televised beginning at 8:00 on NBC  and CBC.
 
Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since January 21, 1982. Visit my blog: NYISkinny.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick

Sunday, April 09, 2017

The Skinny: Isles 4, Ottawa 2

"The Skinny"

 By Eric Hornick
 
Game 82
Isles 4, Ottawa 2
Brock Nelson scored a goal, his 20th and added two assists while Jason Chimera reached the 20-goal mark with an empty net goal as the Islanders defeated Ottawa 4-2 in the season finale before a crowd of 13,303 at Barclays Center.
 
The Isles end the season with a 41-29-12 record (94 points) but fall one point shy of the final playoff berth.
 
The Scoring:
1ST PERIOD
03:23    New York         Andrew Ladd (23) ASST: Alan Quine (13), Johnny Boychuk (17) 1-0
 
2ND PERIOD
08:17    New York         Anders Lee (34) ASST: Josh Bailey (43), Brock Nelson (24)        2-0
13:52    New York         Brock Nelson (20) ASST: Adam Pelech (7), Scott Mayfield (7)     3-0
18:54    Ottawa             Bobby Ryan (13) ASST: Ryan Dzingel (18)         3-1
 
3RD PERIOD
02:34    Ottawa             Jean-Gabriel Pageau (12) ASST: Alexandre Burrows (16), Chris Neil (3)        3-2
18:52    New York         EN - Jason Chimera (20) ASST: Brock Nelson (25), Nick Leddy (35)            4-2
 
The Skinny:
The Isles finish 24-12-4 (.650) under Interim Coach Doug Weight …After opening the season 6-10-4, Isles finished 35-19-8 in their last 62 games… The Isles finish the home season with a 22-12-7 record…The Isles have won six straight games for the first time in a single season since February 12-21, 2008 and in doing so have matched their longest single-season win streak since 1990.…The Isles killed 27of the last 30…Dennis Seidenberg went -1, dropping his team-leading +/- to +25.  He joins Adrian Aucoin +29 and Kenny Jonsson +25 (both in 2003-04) as the only Islanders to finish a season with a rating of +25 or better since 1994-95… Both Nick Leddy (46) and Josh Bailey (56) extended their career highs in points… The Isles are 23-14-7 all-time in finales and 24-13-7 in home finales; it's the first time that the Isles have won a regular season finale in regulation since 2003…The Isles finished the season 30-0-5 in games they led after two periods; it's the first time since 2003-04 (26-0-0) that the Isles have earned a point in every game they led after 40 minutes…This was the 3,500th regular season game in Islander history.
 
Most Points in NHL Since January 19th (Weight's First Game)
1. Caps 26-10-2 (54)
2. ISLES 24-12-4 (52)
3. Pens   22-10-6 (50)
 
Career Years (excluding rookies, and others with limited prior NHL experience)
A number of Isles had career years in 2016-17:
·        Josh Bailey established his career highs in assists (43) and points (56)
·        Jason Chimera matched his career highs in goals (20)  
·        Calvin deHaan established a career high in goals (5), assists (20) and points (25)
·        Thomas Greiss established new career highs in games (51), minutes (2813) and wins (26).
·        Thomas Hickey established a new career high in goals (6)
·        Nick Leddy established a new career high in goals (11) and points (46) and matched a career high in assists (35)
·        Anders Lee established a new career high in goals (34) and points (52)
·        Brock Nelson established a new career high in assists (25) and points (45)

Leaders:
·        Games: Jason Chimera, Josh Bailey and Calvin deHaan - 82
·        Goals: Anders Lee - 34
·        Assists: Josh Bailey - 43
·        Points: John Tavares - 66
·        Plus/Minus: Dennis Seidenberg +25
·        Pen Mins: Travis Hamonic - 60
·        PP Goals: Anders Lee - 9
·        SH Goals: 5 with 1
·        GW Goals: Anders Lee – 6
·        OT Goals: Thomas Hickey - 2
·        Shots: John Tavares with 260
·        Shooting Percentage: Anders Lee - 17.8% (Joshua Ho-Sang 18.2% in 21 games)
·        Average ice-time: Nick Leddy with 22:43
·        Face-off Percentages (minimum 300): John Tavares with 50.6%
 
Most Goals by an Islander in the 2000's
·        Jason Blake -40 (2006-07)
·        John Tavares-38 (2014-15)
·        Matt Moulson-36 (2011-12)
·        Miroslav Satan -35 (2005-06)
·        Mariusz Czerkawski-35 (1999-2000)
·        Anders Lee -34 (2016-17)
·        Michael Grabner-34 (2010-11)
·        John Tavares-33 (2015-16)
 
Flying since Thanksgiving
Anders Lee scored 33 goals in his last 63 games (since November 23rd).  Only Auston Matthews (34) scored more in that span.
 
Jaro, Jaro
Jaroslav Halak went 6-1-0 after his recall from Bridgeport (and 6-0-0 as a starter).  He has played to a 1.58 GAA and 94.9 save percentage in those seven games.
 
Most Wins Since March 24
·        Jaroslav Halak 6
·        Andrei Vasilevskiy 6
 
Lowest Goals Against Average Since March 24 (minimum 3 starts)
1.      Tuukka Rask 0.74
2.      John Gibson 1.32
3.      Jaroslav Halak 1.58
 
Highest Save Percentage Since March 24 (minimum 3 starts)
1.      Tuukka Rask    .971
2.      John GIbson    .960
3.      Jaroslav Halak .949
 
Experience Counts … 20 Times
Jason Chimera is only the second Islander age 37 or over to score 20 goals in a season; Bill Guerin, who turned 37 early in the 2007-08 season, scored 23 times that season. 
 
More Milestones for Bailey
Josh Bailey played in his 639th Isles game, passing Derek King for 9th place among Isles skaters in games played.  Bailey, who had a career-high 56 points, recorded his 200th assist.  He also recorded his 100th goal and 300th point earlier this season.
 
Let's Hear It for the Ladd
Andrew Ladd has scored at least 23 goals for the 4th straight season and the sixth straight full season (he had 18 goals in the lockout year).  He is one of 16 players to score at least 23 goals in each of the last four seasons and one of only eight to do so six times in the last seven seasons.  He'll spend the summer three points shy of 500 for his career (233-264-497).
 
This Generation's Mr. Islander Is Tied with Mr. Islander
John Tavares has 235 career goals, tying him with Bobby Nystrom for eighth place on the club's all-time list.
 
Career goals as an Islander:
7. Bob Bourne 238
8. Bobby Nystrom 235
   John Tavares 235
 
One Goal Games
The Isles went 15-10-12 in one-goal games, winning only 14 of the 36 games (.405).  That .405 percentage in 1-goal games won is the second lowest in the NHL – the Leafs are 14-8-15 (.378) in 1-goal games.  (The Isles were 21-6-10 in one-goal games last season.)
 
The Stretch Run
The Isles played their final 11 regular-season games in a span of 19 days.  The Isles went 8-3-0 in this stretch (2-2-0 at home and 6-1-0 on the road), with seven of the games decided by empty net or less:
 
·        March 22 @ Pittsburgh (Won 3-2)
·        March 24 @ Penguins (Won 4-3 OT)
·        March 25 Vs Bruins (Lost 2-1)
·        March 27 Vs Predators (Lost 3-1)
·        March 30 @ Flyers (Lost 6-3)
·        March 31 Vs Devils (Won 2-1)
·        April 2 @ Sabres (Won 4-2)
·        April 4 @ Predators (Won 2-1)
·        April 6 @ Hurricanes (Won 3-0)
·        April 8 @ Devils (Won 4-2)
·        April 9 Vs Senators (Won 4-2)
 
66 in 51
The Isles went 30-15-6 in their last 51 games (since December 20th vs. Boston). In those games, the PP is 24-147 (16.3%) and the penalty kill is 18-123 (85.4%).
 
50 Game Club
Thomas Greiss is the 11th different Islander goalie to appear in 50 games in a season.  Rick DiPietro did it four times and Tommy Salo did so three times.  The other eight, and now Greiss, have done so once.  Greiss appeared in a career high 51 games, and set career highs for both wins (26) and shutouts (3).
 
Weight Lifted
Isles leading scorers since Doug Weight became the Isles' interim coach:
 
 
Games
Goals
Assists
Points
+/-
1
John Tavares
35
12
22
34
+3
2
Anders Lee
39
19
12
31
+2
3
Josh Bailey
40
7
20
27
+4
4
Nick Leddy
40
4
21
25
+4
5
Brock Nelson
39
11
11
22
-5
6
Andrew Ladd
37
15
4
19
-4
7
Ryan Strome
30
7
9
16
-3
Jason Chimera
40
12
4
16
+3
 
A Different Road
The Isles went 17-11-2 in their last 30 road games, after winning only 2 of their first 11 road games (2-6-3). They were 12-4-1 in their last 17 road games after going 7-13-4 in their first 24 on the road.
 
Longest Home-Ice Point Streaks in Post -Cup Era
11 – 1/19/17 - 2/19/17 (9-0-2)
10 -  12/16/89 - 1/28/90 (9-0-1)
10 – 3/24/13 - 10/17/13 (7-0-3 – Multi-season Streak)
 
The Shots
Isles        7-8-6=21
Ottawa 14-11-9=34
 
The Isles are 19-10-5 when they outshoot their opponents, 3-3-0 when the shots are even and are 19-17-6 when they are outshot.
 
Home and Road
The Islanders are 41-29-12 overall; 22-12-7 at home and 19-17-5 on the road. 
Ottawa is 44-28-10 overall; 22-11-8 at home and 22-17-2 on the road.  
 
By Division & Conference
The Isles are 15-10-5 in Division games and 26-19-7 in games versus other divisions (11-10-3 vs. Atlantic, 7-5-2 vs. Central and 8-4-2 vs. Pacific).   The Isles are 26-20-8 against the East and 15-9-4 against the West.
 
In the Nets
Thomas Greiss made 32 saves to improve to 26-18-5 on the season and 3-1-0 in his career against Ottawa.
 
Mike Condon made 17 saves but falls to 19-14-6 on the season and 2-1-0 in his career against the Isles.
 
Power Plays
The Isles did not have a power play; Ottawa was 0-3.
The Isles are 18-7-6 when they score at least one power play goal and 23-22-6 when they do not.  The Isles are 14-14-5 when they allow at least one power play goal and 27-15-7 when they do not.    
 
Three is a Magic Number
The Isles are 38-8-3 when they score at least three goals (including shootout winners) and are 3-21-9 when they do not.  The only Islander wins when not scoring 3 goals were on November 28th vs. Calgary (2-1 in OT), March 31 vs. Ottawa (2-1), and April 4 @ Nashville (2-1 in OT).
 
One Goal Games
The Isles are 15-10-12 in games decided by a single goal including 7-10 in regulation. They are 6-8 in games decided in overtime and are 2-4 in shootouts.  The Isles are 5-2 in games in which an empty-net goal turns a 1 goal game into a 2-goal game (including one game that they allowed a goal after scoring an empty-netter).
 
First Goal
The Isles are 27-9-8 when they score first and are 14-20-4 when they allow the opening goal.
 
Back-to-Backs
Including tonight, the Isles are 7-8-1 on the front-end of back-to-backs and 7-4-5 on the back-end. 
Tired vs. Rested
·        The Isles are 5-1-3 when both teams played the night before.
·        The Isles are 7-4-2 when they are rested and their opponents are not.
·        The Isles are 2-3-2 when their opponents are rested and the Isles are not.
·        The Isles are 27-21-5 when both teams are rested.
 
Ice-time Leaders
Isles: Johnny Boychuk (20:55); Ottawa: Ben Harpur (24:58)
 
Isles record by ice-time leaders: Travis Hamonic (7-0-0), Nick Leddy (16-21-9), John Tavares (2-1-0), Johnny Boychuk (9-4-1), Dennis Seidenberg (1-1-1), Calvin de Haan (4-2-1), Tied (1-0-0).
 
Connor Jones led the Isles forwards with 16:54 of ice-time. Isles record by Forward ice-time leaders: John Tavares (28-21-10), Josh Bailey (4-5-2), Andrew Ladd (3-0-0), Casey Cizikas (1-0-0), Cal Clutterbuck (0-1-0), Brock Nelson (1-2-0), Shane Prince (1-0-0), Joshua Ho-Sang (1-0-0), Connor Jones (16:54).
 
Face-offs
Isles 29, Ottawa 22 (57%). 
 
Connor Jones won 7 of 10 for the Isles; Jean-Gabriel Pageau won 6 of 7 for Ottawa.
 
Face-offs by period: 1st period- 8/17; 2nd period 11/17; 3rd period 10/17
Face-offs by strength: Even strength: 27/44; Power play 0/0; Penalty kill 2/7.
 
Hit Count
Isles 16, Ottawa 20.  Connor Jones led the Isles with five hits; Jyrki Jokipakka led Ottawa with four.
 
Fights
There were no fights.  Season total – 17: (Hamonic 4, Mayfield 3, Chimera 2, Strome 2, Lee 2, Boychuk 1, deHaan 1, Hickey 1, Ladd 1).
 
Blocked Shots
The Isles were credited with 13 blocked shots; Adam Pelech led the Isles with three.
 
For the Corsi Crowd
All situations: Isles 41, Ottawa 67
5-on-5 Isles 40, Ottawa 56
 
5-on-5 leaders:
Isles: Josh Bailey/Brock Nelson +2; Josh Bailey 55%
Ottawa: Fredrik Claesson +16
 
Ironmen
Jason Chimera – 188 (including 106 for the Capitals); Josh Bailey 149, Calvin deHaan 85
 
Scratches
JF Berube, Nikolay Kulemin, Ryan Strome (injured), Casey Cizikas (injured), Travis Hamonic (injured), John Tavares (injured), Shane Prince (injured)
 
Total games lost: 197
 
All-time Islander Leader Boards:
 
Games Played (skaters)
1.      Bryan Trottier 1123 *** 2. Denis Potvin 1060 *** 3. Bob Nystrom 900
….
8.      Brent Sutter 694 *** 9. Josh Bailey 639
15 Garry Howatt 596 *** 16. John Tonelli 594 *** 17. John Tavares 587
 
Goals
1.      Mike Bossy 573 *** 2. Bryan Trottier 500 *** 3. Denis Potvin 310 *** 4. Clark Gillies 304***
5. Pat LaFontaine and Brent Sutter 287 *** 7. Bob Bourne 238 *** 8. Bob Nystrom and John Tavares 235
25. Ray Ferraro 116 *** 26. Josh Bailey 106
 
Assists
1.      Bryan Trottier 853 *** 2. Denis Potvin 742 *** 3. Mike Bossy 553
8. Stefan Persson 317 *** 9. Bob Bourne 304 *** 10. John Tavares 302
16. Frans Nielson and Kyle Okposo 230 ***18. Josh Bailey 200
 
Points
1.      Bryan Trottier 1353 *** 2. Mike Bossy 1126 *** 3. Denis Potvin 1052
6. Pat LaFontaine 566 *** 7. John Tonelli 544 *** 8. Bob Bourne 542 *** 9.  John Tavares 537
18. Tomas Jonsson 333 *** 19. Ziggy Palffy 331 *** 20. Josh Bailey 306
 
Late Heroes
The Isles have scored three times in the final two minutes of regulation to either tie or win a game:
·        11/25 – SJ Sharks -- Nick Leddy (19:02); tied game, but Isles lost in regulation
·        11/30 – Pit Penguins – Anders Lee (19:33); Game Winning goal
·        2/6 – Tor Maple Leafs – Andrew Ladd (18:31); Isles won in overtime
 
Late Losses
The Isles have allowed the lead goal in the final 3 minutes of regulation seven times (including one game they rallied to win):
 
·        10/18 – SJ Sharks - Joe Pavelski (17:49)
·        10/26 – Mtl Canadiens - Shea Weber (17:03)
·        10/27 – Pit Penguins - Sidney Crosby (17:35)
·        11/23 – LA Kings – Dwight King (17:07)
·        11/25 – SJ Sharks – Patrick Marleau (19:37)
·        2/3 – Det Red Wings – Danny DeKeyser (19:32)
·        2/6 – Tor Maple Leafs – Michael Nylander (17:59) (Isles won game in OT)
 
Fit to Be Tied
The Isles have allowed the final goal of regulation in 13 of their 20 games that have gone to overtime this season, including four in the final minute:
 
·        10/16 – Ana Ducks – Ryan Getzlaf (19:00); Isles won in OT
·        11/3 – Phi Flyers – Jakob Voracek (19:02/PP); Flyers won in SO
·        11/12 – Fla Panthers – Jonathan Marchessault (19:46); Panthers won in OT
·        3/10 – Van Canucks – Troy Stecher (19:40); Isles won in OT
 
Better at Night
The Isles finished the season with a record of 2-3-1 in day games (0-0-1 at home and 2-3-0 on the road):
 
·        11/25 - at SJ Sharks (lost 2-3)
·        1/16 – at Bos Bruins (won 4-0)
·        2/11 – at Ott Senators (lost 0-3)
·        3/5 -  at Cal Flames (lost 2-5)
·        3/18 – vs Col Blue Jackets (lost/OT 2-3)
·        4/2 – at Buf Sabres (won 4-2)
 
Season Series Stats
Ottawa wins the season series two games to one (and 4 points to 2)
 
The Isles are 8-5-1 in their last 14 games against Ottawa.
 
On The Farm
Bridgeport is 44-26-3-1 on the season after they held on to beat Hartford 3-2 in their home finale. The Sound Tigers are one point behind Hershey in the battle for the final playoff spot (each team has two games to play.
 
Travis St. Denis, Ben Holmstrom and Ryan Pulock had the goals for Bridgeport. Eamon MacAdam made 19 saves to improve to 15-6-0-0 on the season.
 
Bracken Kearns leads the Sound Tigers in goals (23) and points (23-26-49). Rookie Devon Toews leads the team in assists with 38.  Ryan Pulock leads the defense with 14 goals and 44 points (14-30-44).  Pulock also leads the team (and all AHL defensemen) with 6 game-winning goals.
 
Bridgeport closes their regular season with games on Saturday in Springfield and next Sunday against Lehigh Valley.

Up Next
Summer Vacation.  A lot sooner than I hoped.
 
And Finally…
82 games, 82 editions of The Skinny.  It's another perfect season, at least in attendance. Counting a special double edition in March 2013, the attendance streak dates to February 28, 2012 – 396 regular season games (and 24 playoff games).   We'll see if we can make it to 500 games (including playoffs) next April!
Thanks to all of you who read (and contribute) to The Skinny all year long.  I am truly thankful for all of your kind words and your passion, whether it is on Twitter, at Barclays, or in random meetings on the street.
 
Thanks also to all of MSG Network teammates – the ones you know: Brendan Burke (our Rookie of the Year), Butch Goring, Shannon Hogan, and Stan Fischler – and the ones you don't: Producer Jim Gallagher, Director Dave Hagen, Graphics Coordinator Sarah Servetnick, Tape AD Charlie Cucchiara, and Stage Manager JT Townsend. 
 
A final thanks to Kimber, Jesse and Kelly from the Islander PR staff, to Cory and Brooke from Barclays Center and to my very understanding family!

Eric Hornick has been the statistician on Islander home game telecasts since January 21, 1982. Information contained in "The Skinny" has been gathered from various sources.  Follow Eric @ehornick on Twitter & on his blog http://www.nyiskinny.com./


 
Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since January 21, 1982. Visit my blog: NYISkinny.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick