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Monday, April 16, 2007

Whowins?

The good folks at whowins.com (full disclosure--they've mentioned me on their site in the past) have some interesting numbers on this series, based on all of the previous best-of-7 series that have been played.

Limiting them to the NHL, they look like this:

[all credit due to whowins.com]

<<The team tied 1-game-all with Games 1-2 at home (Buffalo) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2006 MLB Finals:
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 121-101 (.545)
series record, NHL only, Prelim round: 39-38 (.506)
Game 3 record, NHL only, all rounds: 107-115 (.482)
Game 3 record, NHL only, Prelim round: 39-38 (.506)

The team that wins Game 1 but loses Game 2 irrespective of site (Buffalo) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2006 MLB Finals:
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 105-122 (.463)
series record, NHL only, Prelim round: 31-46 (.403)

Game 3 record, NHL only, all rounds: 107-120 (.471)
Game 3 record, NHL only, Prelim round: 35-42 (.455)

The team that wins Game 1 but loses Game 2 with Games 1-2 at home (Buffalo) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2006 MLB Finals:
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 54-54 (.500)
series record, NHL only, Prelim round: 13-20 (.394)

Game 3 record, NHL only, all rounds: 49-59 (.454)
Game 3 record, NHL only, Prelim round: 15-18 (.455)
>>

Two numbers really jump out from an Islander perspective:
Teams that win game two after losing game one have won an NHL preliminary round series nearly 60% of the time.
Teams that win game two after losing game one on the road have won an NHL preliminary series over 60% of the time.

Here's to history repeating itself!



Forever1940 is the nom de plume of FSN statistician Eric Hornick. Eric, who has worked the Stanley Cup Finals four times, celebrated his 25th anniversary as the statistician on Islander home telecasts on January 21, 2007. Often referred to on-air as an actuary, he is one of 2,920 Fellows of the Casualty Actuarial Society and is the President-Elect of the Casualty Actuaries of Greater NY.You can find him in the "Best Seat in the House", about six feet to Howie and Billy's left, at most Islander home games.For more on the actuarial profession, visit www.beanactuary.org

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