Do you remember this from last year? What's 14 x 13 x 12 x 11? It's 24,024.
What does that have to do with the Draft Lottery, which will be conducted on Tuesday night? Well, everything.
The lottery, which will determine the first two picks in the NHL Entry Draft, which begins June 26th, is conducted with the selection of four balls from a pool of 14. Once a ball is chosen, it is not replaced (so each ball can be selected only once). As if turns out, there are 24,024 possible "permutations" that can be chosen. However, when you change it to combinations (ie 1-2-3-4 is the same result as 4-3-2-1 or 2-3-4-1.... or 21 other permutations), there are only (24,024 divided by 24 = ) 1,001 possible results.
One of those 1,001 is thrown out (it is the combination 11-12-13-14) and the others are assigned to each of the teams. Last year's combination of 7-11-12-13 was assigned to the Islanders and that was how they earned the right to draft the presumptive Calder Trophy winner.
Here are the odds of winning the lottery:
Teams (Fewest Points to Most) Odds
1 Vancouver Canucks 18.5%
2 Chicago Blackhawks 13.5%
3 New York Rangers 11.5%
4 Calgary Flames 9.5%
5 Toronto Maple Leafs (cond. to BOS) * 8.5%
6 Seattle Kraken 7.5%
7 Winnipeg Jets 6.5%
8 Florida Panthers 6.0%
9 San Jose Sharks 5.0%
10 Nashville Predators 3.5%
11 St. Louis Blues 3.0%
12 New Jersey Devils 2.5%
13 New York Islanders 2.0%
14 Columbus Blue Jackets 1.5%
15 St. Louis Blues (from DET) 0.5%
16 Washington Capitals 0.5%
The Isles' odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 50, although if the Isles win the lottery they can only move as high as 3rd (and Vancouver would retain the top pick) as you can only move up 10 spots.
The Isles' odds of winning the lottery are about 57% of what they were a season ago - the chances a team winning with a 3.5% and a 2.0% chance is in consecutive years is 1:1,428, but the lotteries are independent events so the Isles' still have 2.0% chance this season.
The Isles have won the lottery three times, moving from 4th to 1st in 2000 (DiPietro), retaining the first pick in 2009 (Tavares), and hitting the lottery from 10th to 1st last season (Schaefer).
The Isles have picked 1st overall five times: Harris (1972), Potvin (1973), DiPietro (2000), Tavares (2009), Schaefer (2025) but won't this season.
So what are the Isles' lucky numbers? Here are the 20 combinations that will win the lottery for the Isles.
1 2 5 6
1 2 5 11
1 3 4 13
1 5 7 9
1 5 11 12
1 6 7 11
2 3 7 13
2 3 12 13
2 9 12 13
2 12 13 14
3 6 13 14
3 8 12 14
3 10 11 14
4 5 8 11
4 5 8 14
4 6 9 14
5 7 10 14
6 11 13 14
7 9 13 14
8 9 10 14
Each lottery ball appears in exactly 286 combinations (although the 11-12-13-14 combination would be thrown out).
The number 14 is the most common winning number for the Isles, appearing 10 times; number 10 is the least common, appearing only three times. (The number ten was also the least common number in the Isles' lottery card last season)
The lottery will be shown live on ESPN Tuesday night; you will be able to see the Isles' odds of winning change after each ball is chosen.
The most you can move up is 10 spots, so if NJ/NYI/CBJ/Stl/Was win the lottery, the first pick will belong to Vancouver. The Canucks have never picked first in the NHL Entry Draft.
Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since January 21, 1982. Visit my blog: NYISkinny.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick
