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The Skinny: Carolina 6, Isles 3 (Carolina wins series 4-1)

"The Skinny" By Eric Hornick Eastern Conference Round 1, Game 5 Carolina 6, Isles 3 Carolina Wins Series 4-1 School is out. Jack D...

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Isles on brink

The Isles will face playoff elimination on Saturday night.

With 25 regulation wins, 70 points and 7 games to play, the most they can finish
with is 32 regulation wins and 84 points.

Since Buffalo already has 83, Isles would be eliminated with any of the

Isles loss (maximum 82)
Isles OT/SO loss (maximum 83 with maximum 31 ROW -- Buffalo already has 32 ROW)
Buffalo win over NJ (Gives Sabres 85)
Buffalo OT/SO loss and Isles SO win (Gives Sabres 84/32; Isles could finish no
higher than 84/31)
Carolina ROW over Tampa (Gives Carolina 82, and guarantees either Buffalo or
Carolina finishes ahead of Isles.)
Carolina SO win and Isles SO win (Gives Carolina 82/31, and guarantees either
Buffalo or Carolina finishes ahead of Isles.)

(If Carolina gets an ROW, they will have 82 points; they have a game remaining
with Buffalo, meaning one of those teams is guaranteed to get two additional
points. If Buffalo wins that game they would have a minimum of 85; if Carolina
wins they would have 84. However, Carolina would win tie-break over Isles
(either by ROW or by season series); If both Carolina and Isles earn SO wins,
Carolina would have 82/31 and most Isles could get is 84/31; however Carolina
and Buffalo play each other, guaranteeing that one reaches at least 84/32.

A Sabres OT/SO loss would not eliminate Isles (if Isles win in regulation).
Isles could then match Sabres at 84/32 and Isles have won season series.

OT/SO points make this confusing. ROWs make it plain silly.

Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home
telecasts since 1982. Visit my blog: forever1940.blogspot.com and follow me on
Twitter @ehornick

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