(Unfortunately this is one that I had multiple copies of in my files)
Quick: what's 14 x 13 x 12 x 11? It's 24,024.
What does that have to do with the Draft Lottery, which will be conducted on Monday night? Well, everything.
The lottery, which will determine the first two picks in the NHL Entry Draft, which begins June 27th, is conducted with the selection of four balls from a pool of 14. Once a ball is chosen, it is not replaced (so each ball can be selected only once). As if turns out, there are 24,024 possible "permutations" that can be chosen. However, when you change it to combinations (ie 1-2-3-4 is the same result as 4-3-2-1 or 2-3-4-1.... or 21 other permutations), there are only (24,024 divided by 24 = ) 1,001 possible results.
One of those 1,001 is thrown out (it is the combination 11-12-13-14) and the others are assigned to each of the teams.
Here are the odds of winning the lottery:
Draft Lottery Participants (Fewest Points to Most) Odds
San Jose Sharks 18.5%
Chicago Blackhawks 13.5%
Nashville Predators 11.5%
Philadelphia Flyers 9.5%
Boston Bruins 8.5%
Seattle Kraken 7.5%
Buffalo Sabres 6.5%
Anaheim Ducks 6.0%
Pittsburgh Penguins 5.0%
New York Islanders 3.5%
New York Rangers* 3.0%
Detroit Red Wings 2.5%
Columbus Blue Jackets 2.0%
Utah Hockey Club 1.5%
Vancouver Canucks 0.5%
Calgary Flames** 0.5%
(**) If Calgary wins the lottery, they will transfer Florida's 1st pick to Montreal; otherwise they will transfer their own pick
The Isles' odds of winning the lottery are about 28.5:1, although they do have a slightly better than 7% chance of ending up with one of the first two picks.
The Isles have won the lottery twice, moving from 4th to 1st in 2000 (DiPietro) and retaining the first pick in 2009 (Tavares).
The Isles have picked 1st overall four times: Harris (1972), Potvin (1973), DiPietro (2000), Tavares (2009)
So what are the Isles' lucky numbers? Here are the combinations that will win the lottery for the Isles.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 |
| 1 | 2 | 12 | 14 |
| 1 | 3 | 13 | 14 |
| 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 |
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 13 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 13 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | 4 | 11 | 14 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | 11 | 13 |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | 6 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 3 | 8 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| 4 | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| 4 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| 5 | 6 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | 7 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | 7 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | 7 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 |
| 6 | 7 | 12 | 13 |
| 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| 7 | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| 7 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
Each lottery ball appears in exactly 286 combinations (although the 11-12-13-14 combination would be thrown out).
The numbers 8 and 14 are the most common winning number for the Isles, appearing 13 times; number 10 is the least common, appearing only six times.
The lottery will be shown on ESPN Monday night in the 7:00 hour; unlike past years, and in a move that I have suggested, the lottery will be shown live and you will be able to see the Isles' odds of winning change after each ball is chosen.
The most you can move up is 10 spots, so if Det/CBJ/Utah/Van/Cgy win the lottery, the first pick will belong to San Jose.
Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since January 21, 1982. Visit my blog: NYISkinny.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick
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