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Face-offs improving

The Isles beat the Stars in the face-off circle today by a 33-21 margin.  Their 61.1% success rate was their highest this season. The Isles ...

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

The Skinny on the Isles in the Circle

Through 19 games the Isles have won only 45.1% of their face-offs, which places them 28th in a 30-team league.

What should be concerning is how many games they have been dominated in draws, and how many game (well, none) that they have dominated.

Consider these numbers:

Faceoff win %
  • 36%-41%  8 times
  • 42% 50%  5 times
  • 51%-55%  6 times

So, in over 40% of their games (8/19), the Isles have lost 59% of their face-offs or worse.

In terms of raw differentials:
  • In 6 games, the Isles have won 0 to 5 more draws than they lost
  • In 5 games, the Isles lost 1 to 8 more draws than they won
  • In 6 games, the Isles lost 9 to 11 more draws than they won
Two games were even worse than that, and ironically the Isles won both games: On Tuesday vs Nashville, they were outdrawn 38-22 (-16) and on October 25th in Pittsburgh they were outdrawn 48-27 (-21).

The Isles were a much better team on the draw last year, when they won 49.7% -- they lost 16 more than they won over the course of 48 games  (or 1 draw every 3 games).  This year the Isles have lost 112 more draws than they have won  -- nearly 6 per game!

None of the Islander regular centers have won more draws than they lost this season:
  • Cizikas  49.8%
  • Nielsen  48.3%
  • Tavares  43.5%
  • Regin  41.0%
Oh,  the two best teams on the draw in the NHL are Nashville (55.2%) and Los Angeles (also 55.2%).  The Kings are at the Coliseum on Thursday.

Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since January 21, 1982. Visit my blog: NYISkinny.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick

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