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The Skinny: Carolina 6, Isles 3 (Carolina wins series 4-1)

"The Skinny" By Eric Hornick Eastern Conference Round 1, Game 5 Carolina 6, Isles 3 Carolina Wins Series 4-1 School is out. Jack D...

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

The Skinny on the Isles in the Circle

Through 19 games the Isles have won only 45.1% of their face-offs, which places them 28th in a 30-team league.

What should be concerning is how many games they have been dominated in draws, and how many game (well, none) that they have dominated.

Consider these numbers:

Faceoff win %
  • 36%-41%  8 times
  • 42% 50%  5 times
  • 51%-55%  6 times

So, in over 40% of their games (8/19), the Isles have lost 59% of their face-offs or worse.

In terms of raw differentials:
  • In 6 games, the Isles have won 0 to 5 more draws than they lost
  • In 5 games, the Isles lost 1 to 8 more draws than they won
  • In 6 games, the Isles lost 9 to 11 more draws than they won
Two games were even worse than that, and ironically the Isles won both games: On Tuesday vs Nashville, they were outdrawn 38-22 (-16) and on October 25th in Pittsburgh they were outdrawn 48-27 (-21).

The Isles were a much better team on the draw last year, when they won 49.7% -- they lost 16 more than they won over the course of 48 games  (or 1 draw every 3 games).  This year the Isles have lost 112 more draws than they have won  -- nearly 6 per game!

None of the Islander regular centers have won more draws than they lost this season:
  • Cizikas  49.8%
  • Nielsen  48.3%
  • Tavares  43.5%
  • Regin  41.0%
Oh,  the two best teams on the draw in the NHL are Nashville (55.2%) and Los Angeles (also 55.2%).  The Kings are at the Coliseum on Thursday.

Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since January 21, 1982. Visit my blog: NYISkinny.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick

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