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The Skinny: Carolina 6, Isles 3 (Carolina wins series 4-1)

"The Skinny" By Eric Hornick Eastern Conference Round 1, Game 5 Carolina 6, Isles 3 Carolina Wins Series 4-1 School is out. Jack D...

Sunday, March 29, 2015

The Skinny on Isles Clinching Scenarios

The Isles magic number  to clinch a playoff spot was reduced to 6 with their win over Detroit and Ottawa's loss to Florida.

In order to clinch a playoff spot, the Isles need to finish ahead of at least two of these three teams: Boston, Ottawa and Florida  (they would also clinch a spot if they finish ahead of Washington).

  • Isles have 95 points, 38 regulation/overtime wins (ROW)
  • Boston has 89 points, 35 ROWs and 6 games to play.  They can finish with a maximum of 101 points.
  • Ottawa has 86 points, 32 ROWs and 7 games to play.  They can finish with a maximum of 100 points.
  • Florida has 85 points, 27 ROWs and 6 games to play.  They can finish with a maximum of 97 points.
Isles magic numbers are:
  • 7 vs. Boston
  • 6 vs. Ottawa
  • 2 vs. Florida  (because Isles will win ROW tie-breaker)
So, any Islander win or Florida regulation loss will mean the Isles will finish ahead of the Cats.

Florida is at Boston, and Ottawa is at Detroit on Tuesday.
Boston is in Detroit, Ottawa hosts Tampa Bay and Florida hosts Carolina on Thursday.

The Isles, who are idle until the play Thursday in  Columbus, can clinch a playoff spot on Thursday IFFFFFFF:
  • The Isles win
  • AND Ottawa gets no more than 1 point in their games Tuesday/Thursday  (This would assure Isles win tie-breaker)
  • The Isles lose in OT/SO
  • AND Ottawa loses twice in regulation (This would assure Isles win tie-breaker)
  • AND Florida does not beat both Boston and Carolina
If Ottawa wins either of their next two games, the Isles can not clinch until at least Saturday.  The Isles can not clinch a spot over Boston until at least Saturday.

Some other numbers -- the Isles' magic number to finish ahead of Washington is 10 points.  The Isles' magic number to finish ahead of Pittsburgh is 13 points.  

The Isles once again, thanks to San Jose forcing a shootout,  have home-ice in their control -- here's how -- if the Isles win their last 5- all in regulation, they will finish with 105 points and 43 ROW. Since one of those 5 is against Pittsburgh, the best the Penguins could do is 105 points and 43 ROW but the Isles have already won season series with Pittsburgh, and that is the next tie-breaker!

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