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Tuesday, March 31, 2015

The Skinny on Isles Magic Numbers and Clinching Scenarios (Including games of 3/31) - Earliest clinch date now Saturday

The Isles magic number to clinch a playoff spot remained six as both Boston and Ottawa won on Tuesday.

In order to clinch a playoff spot, the Isles need to finish ahead of one of these five teams: Pittsburgh, Washington, Detroit, Boston or Ottawa.

Tuesday's scores of note:
Boston beat Florida 3-2
Ottawa beat Detroit 2-1 in a shootout
Washington beat Carolina 4-2
  • Isles have 95 points, 38 regulation/overtime wins (ROW) & 5 games to play. The Isles were idle Tuesday. They can finish with a maximum of 105 points.
  • Pittsburgh has 95 points, 38 ROW and 6 games to play. Pens were idle Tuesday. They can finish with a maximum of 107 points.
  • Washington has 94 points, 38 ROW and 5 games to play. Caps beat Carolina Tuesday. They can finish with a maximum of 104 points.
  • Detroit has 93 points, 37 ROW and 6 games to play after their shootout loss vs. Ottawa. They can finish with a maximum of 105 points.
  • Boston has 91 points, 36 ROW and 5 games to play after their win vs. Florida.  They can finish with a maximum of 101 points.
  • Ottawa has 88 points, 32 ROW and 6 games to play after their SO win vs. Detroit.  They can finish with a maximum of 100 points.
  • Florida has 85 points, 27 ROW and 5 games to play after their loss to Boston.  They can finish with a maximum of 95 points but cannot catch the Isles in ROWs so the Isles are now guaranteed to finish ahead of the Panthers.
Isles magic numbers are:
  • 13 vs. Pittsburgh
  • 11 vs. Detroit
  • 10 vs. Washington
  • 7 vs. Boston
  • 6 vs. Ottawa
  • 0 vs. Florida  (because Isles will win ROW tie-breaker)
Pittsburgh hosts Philadelphia Wednesday.

The Islanders are in Columbus, Boston is in Detroit, Ottawa hosts Tampa Bay and Washington is in Montreal on Thursday.

None of these teams play Friday, but they all play Saturday:  Isles host Buffalo, Pittsburgh is at Columbus, Washington is at Ottawa, Detroit is at Minnesota and Boston hosts Toronto.

Clinching Scenarios for Saturday:
Isles win twice (Thursday/Saturday) and Ottawa does not win twice.
or
Isles win twice and Boston earns one point or less in their two games
or
Isles get three points and Ottawa earns two points or less in their two games
or
Isles get three points and Boston loses twice in regulation
or
Isles get two points (one ROW) and Ottawa loses twice in regulation
or 
Isles gets two points (no ROW) and Ottawa earns one point or less in their two games
or 
Isles get one point and Ottawa loses twice in regulation


The Isles still have home-ice in their control -- here's how -- if the Isles win their last 5- all in regulation, they will finish with 105 points and 43 ROW. Since one of those five games is against Pittsburgh, the best the Penguins could do is 105 points and 43 ROW but the Isles have already won season series with Pittsburgh, and that is the next tie-breaker! 

(If the Isles were to tie Washington in points and ROW, they would finish behind the Caps as Washington won the season series 6 points to 5,  Washington also holds the same-tiebreaker over Pittsburgh.  If all three teams were to tie, the Caps would finish ahead of the Isles, who would finish ahead of Pittsburgh.)




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