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The Skinny: Carolina 6, Isles 3 (Carolina wins series 4-1)

"The Skinny" By Eric Hornick Eastern Conference Round 1, Game 5 Carolina 6, Isles 3 Carolina Wins Series 4-1 School is out. Jack D...

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Re: The Skinny on the Playoff Chase

The Standings:
  •          3 Washington (SE Leader) 40 games 21-17-2 44 points (18 ROW) Next game: Thursday vs. Carolina
  •          5. Toronto 39 games 22-13-4 48 points  (22 ROW) Next game: Wednesday at NY Rangers
  •          6  Ottawa  39 games 19-14-6 44 points  (15 ROW) Next game: Thursday at Philadelphia
  •          7  NY Islanders 40 games 20-16-4 44 points  (17 ROW) Next game: Thursday at Boston
  •          8  NY Rangers 39 games  19-16-4 42 points  (16 ROW) Next game: Wednesday vs. Toronto
  •          9  Winnipeg 41 games 20-19-2 42 points (19 ROW) Next game: Thursday vs. Florida
  •         10  New Jersey 39 games 15-14-10 40 points (13 ROW) Next game: Wednesday vs. Boston
What's a ROW?
Regulation or Overtime Wins. Wins earned in a shootout do not count towards the first tiebreaker.

What are the tie-breakers?
  • Fewest games played  (That's why Ottawa is 6th and the Isles 7th)
  • Most ROW
  • Head-to-Head record
  • Goal differential for the entire season

What does this mean for Saturday?
Since the Rangers won the February 7th meeting at MSG in regulation, they have five points in the season series to the Isles' three.  The Isles need a REGULATION win on Saturday to split this tie-breaker.  Obviously the Isles could finish with more regulation/overtime wins to make this tiebreaker moot, but an Isles regulation win could make the fourth tie-breaker necessary (which could in theory come down to the final score of the Ranger-Devil game on April 27th).

Isn't it Magic?
The Islanders' magic number (points earned by the Islanders or lost by the team that is not in a playoff position but has the highest possible points) for clinching a playoff spot is 15. Of the teams currently not in a playoff spot, New Jersey can reach the highest total (58 points). 

Clinch #s:
The Isles will qualify for the playoffs if they can finish ahead of 7 other teams.  Here are the maximum point totals, and respective Clinch #s for the seven teams currently not in a playoff spot.

Winnipeg 42 points in 41 games.  Maximum points: 56.  Clinch #: 13
New Jersey 40 points in 39 games. Maximum points: 58.  Clinch #: 15
Buffalo 38 points in 40 games. Maximum points: 54.  Clinch #: 11
Philadelphia 37 points in 39 games. Maximum points: 55. Clinch # 12
Tampa Bay 36 points in 39 games. Maximum points: 54. Clinch #: 11
Carolina 34 points in 39 games.  Maximum points: 52. Clinch #: 9
Florida 32 points in 39 games. Maximum points: 50. Clinch # 7

Upcoming Games:

Wednesday, 4/10:
  • Boston at New Jersey  The Devils are 0-3-4 in their last 7 and do not own a win against the current "top 8" since February 21. Boston can move into the division lead with a victory.
  • Toronto at Rangers  The Rangers own the NHL's easiest remaining schedule.  After Saturday's game vs. the Isles, none of their remaining games are against the "top 8"
Thursday, 4/11:
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
Montreal at Buffalo
Florida at Winnipeg
Islanders at Boston
Ottawa at Philadelphia
Carolina at Washington

Friday, 4/12:
Ottawa at New Jersey

Saturday, 4/13:
Rangers at Islanders
Pittsburgh at Florida
Montreal at Toronto
Boston at Carolina
Tampa Bay at Washington
Philadelphia at Buffalo

Sunday, 4/14:
Tampa Bay at Buffalo

Monday, 4/15:
Philadelphia at Montreal
Ottawa at Boston
New Jersey at Toronto

Tuesday, 4/16:
Florida at Islanders
Toronto at Washington
Carolina at Ottawa
Rangers at Philadelphia
Tampa Bay at Winnipeg

Wednesday, 4/17:
Montreal at Pittsburgh
Buffalo at Boston
There are 18 days remaining in the NHL season.  The season ends on Saturday, April 27th, with 12 Eastern Conference teams in action.  The Jets play their final game on April 25th while the Islanders face the Sabres in their final game on Friday, April 26.
Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since January 21, 1982. Visit my blog: NYISkinny.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick

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