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The Skinny: Boston 3, Isles 1

"The Skinny" By Eric Hornick Game 29 Boston 3, Isles 1 Brad Marchand broke a scoreless tie midway through the game and Jake DeBrus...

Friday, April 19, 2013

The Skinny on the Playoff Chase

The Rangers eliminated the Sabres (and the Flyers).  The Boston Police eliminated the marathon maniac (or at least captured him):  #BostonStrong

The Standings:
  • 3 Washington (SE Leader) 44 games 24-18-2 50 points (21 ROW) Next game: Saturday at Montreal
  • 5. Toronto 44 games 24-15-5 53 points (24 ROW) Next game: Saturday at Ottawa
  • 6 Ottawa 43 games 23-14-6 52 points (19 ROW) Next game: Saturday vs. Toronto
  • 7 NY Islanders 44 games 23-16-5 51 points (20 ROW) Next game: Saturday at Winnipeg
  • 8 NY Rangers 44 games 23-17-4 50 points (19 ROW) Next game: Sunday vs Devils
  • 9 Winnipeg 44 games 23-19-2 48 points (21 ROW) Next game: Saturday vs. Islanders
  • 10 Buffalo 45 games 18-20-6 44 points (13 ROW) Next game: Monday vs. Winnipeg
  • 11 New Jersey 43 games 16-17-10 42 points (14 ROW) Next game: Saturday vs. Florida
The Sabres have been eliminated; the Devils are still alive...mathematically.

What's a ROW?
Regulation or Overtime Wins. Wins earned in a shootout do not count towards the first tiebreaker.

What are the tie-breakers?
  • Fewest games played
  • Most ROW
  • Head-to-Head record
  • Goal differential for the entire season
Isn't it Magic?
The Islanders' magic number (points earned by the Islanders or lost by the team that is not in a playoff position but has the highest possible points) for clinching a playoff spot is 6. Of the teams currently not in a playoff spot, Winnipeg can reach the highest total (56 points). Since the Jets have 21 ROW and the Isles 20, the Isles will likely need to beat Winnipeg in points to finish ahead of the Jets. The Isles' magic number to finish ahead of the Devils is 1.

Why Does the Southeast Leader Matter?
The Isles now have 51 points,  one more than Washington and three more than Winnipeg.  Both Washington and Winnipeg would need to finish ahead of the Isles for the Isles to miss the playoffs (assuming the Isles earn at least one point in final 4, which will guarantee they finish ahead of New Jersey).

Clinch #s:
The Isles will qualify for the playoffs if they can finish ahead of 7 other teams.  Here are the maximum point totals, and respective Clinch #s for the teams currently not in a playoff spot that could still catch the Isles.
  • Winnipeg 48 points in 44 games.  Maximum points: 56.  Clinch #: 6
  • New Jersey 42 points in 43 games. Maximum points: 52.  Clinch # 1*
*If  New Jersey wins out they could finish with 19 ROWs but Isles already have 20 to clinch tie-break.

Isles have clinched at least 10th place in East as they are guaranteed to finish ahead of Buffalo, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Florida. (The Isles have finished 13th or lower in each of the last five seasons.)

Remaining Eastern Conference Schedule:

Saturday, 4/20:
  • Pittsburgh at Boston -- Bruins fell two points behind Montreal, who beat Tampa on Thursday.  However, Boston has six games left and Montreal only 4.  The Penguins can clinch the top seed in the East with a win.  (Tentatively scheduled for 12:30 ET)
  • Washington at Montreal --This is the Canadiens home finale.  The Caps start the day two points ahead of Winnipeg in the Southeast, and host the Jets on Tuesday.  A Canadiens regulation win would be a huge help for the Isles.
  • Toronto at Ottawa -- Big Battle of Ontario.  From an Isles standpoint -- can someone win this game in regulation?
  • Islanders at Winnipeg -- Isles put 8-game point streak at stake in hockey-mad Winnipeg.  Jets could tie Caps in points with win.  Isles can temporarily tie Leafs for 5th with win -- but can end day no higher than 6th because Toronto and Ottawa play each other.
  • Florida at New Jersey --the Devils will be mathematically eliminated if they don't win.
  • Philadelphia at Carolina -- both teams have been eliminated; they are the Isles' next two opponents after Saturday.
Sunday, 4/21:
Florida at Boston
New Jersey at Rangers
Carolina at Tampa Bay

Monday, 4/22:
Pittsburgh at Ottawa
Winnipeg at Buffalo 
  
Tuesday, 4/23:
Buffalo at Pittsburgh (rescheduled from 4/20)
Boston at Philadelphia 
Winnipeg at Washington
Montreal at New Jersey
Islanders at Carolina
Rangers at Florida

Wednesday, 4/24:
Toronto at Tampa Bay 
 
Thursday, 4/25:
Pittsburgh at New Jersey
Montreal at Winnipeg
Ottawa at Washington
Tampa Bay at Boston
Toronto at Florida
Islanders at Philadelphia
Rangers at Carolina

Friday, 4/26:
Islanders at Buffalo

Saturday, 4/27:
Carolina at Pittsburgh
Montreal at Toronto
Boston at Washington
Philadelphia at Ottawa
New Jersey at Rangers
Florida at Tampa Bay

Sunday, 4/28:
Ottawa at Boston
 
There are 9 days remaining in the NHL season. The season now ends on Sunday, April 28 with a game between Ottawa and Boston. 10 other Eastern Conference teams will end their season on April 27th. The Islanders face the Sabres in their final game on Friday, April 26 while the Jets play their final game on April 25th.
 
Forever1940 is the nom de plume of Eric Hornick, statistician on Islander home telecasts since January 21, 1982. Visit my blog: NYISkinny.com and follow me on Twitter @ehornick

1 comment:

Yesislanders said...

Great job as usual Eric